Life expectancy in western countries, once on a steady upward trajectory, has hit a worrying slowdown since 2011, with obesity, poor diet and physical inactivity taking a heavy toll — compounded by the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, a new study has found.
The study from the United Kingdom, published Tuesday in The Lancet Public Health, found that despite decades of steady improvements in life expectancy across Europe, many people may face earlier death rather than enjoying longer lives than their parents.
“Advances in public health and medicine in the 20th century meant that life expectancy in Europe improved year after year. But this is no longer the case,” said the study’s lead researcher, Nick Steel a professor of public health at the University of East Anglia in England.
“From 1990 to 2011, reductions in deaths from cardiovascular diseases and cancers continued to lead to substantial improvements in life expectancy,” he said.
However, he said decades of improved health outcomes started stalling around 2011.
In an email to Global News, Steel said although the research focused on Europe, “Canada faces the same underlying risks.”
Since the early 20th century, life expectancy in developed countries like Canada has steadily risen, driven by breakthroughs in medicine, widespread vaccination, improved sanitation and better overall living conditions.
Statistics Canada data shows that life expectancy at birth for men has increased by 20.5 years, from 58.8 years in 1920 to 1922 to 79.3 years in 2009 to 2011. During the same period, the life expectancy of women increased by 23 years, from 60.6 years to 83.6 years.
Lower life expectancy at birth due to infant mortality rates was a huge part of the average life being so low during this time. About one in ten Canadian babies died within the first year of life in 1921, compared with about one in 200 in 2011.
High infant mortality rates were a major factor in low life expectancy during this time. In 1921, about one in 10 Canadian babies did not survive their first year, compared to just one in 200 in 2011.
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Similar to the findings in the Lancet study, life expectancy in Canada had been declining in recent years. However, the latest data from Statistics Canada shows a reversal in this trend.
After three consecutive years of decline, life expectancy at birth in Canada increased from 81.3 years in 2022 to 81.7 years in 2023, a gain of 0.4 years. Despite this improvement, it remains 0.5 years below the pre-pandemic level of 82.2 years in 2019, data shows.
The research team analyzed data from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation’s Global Burden of Disease 2021, a comprehensive database that tracks health loss across different regions and periods. This database is the result of contributions from nearly 12,000 collaborators across more than 160 countries and territories.
They then compared changes in life expectancy, causes of death and population exposure to risk factors across Europe between 1990 to 2011; 2011 to 2019, and 2019 to 2021.
Countries studied included Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
The data showed that even before the COVID-19 pandemic, decades of steady improvements in life expectancy in Europe began to slow down around 2011.
“The ‘stalled’ life expectancies between 2011 and 2019 were mainly due to slower reductions in deaths from cardiovascular conditions and cancers, until COVID and related respiratory conditions became a leading cause of death,” Steel said.
In Canada, the top leading causes of death in 2024 were due to heart disease and malignant neoplasms, according to Statistics Canada.
“The worsening picture from cardiovascular disease and cancer was linked to consistently high risks from diet and physical inactivity, rising obesity, and stalling improvements in high blood pressure and high cholesterol,” he added.
Unsurprisingly, the study found the COVID-19 pandemic was responsible for decreases in life expectancy seen between 2019 to 2021.
The study said that despite the downturn, they believe humans haven’t reached a biological ceiling for longevity.
“The findings reported in this paper do not support the hypothesis that the slowing of life expectancy improvements is because a natural longevity ceiling has been reached, because many countries are seeing continued improvements,” Steel said.
He added that countries like Norway, Iceland, Belgium, Denmark, and Sweden have best maintained life expectancy gains after 2011 by continuing to reduce mortality from cardiovascular diseases and cancers. This progress is likely due to decreased exposure to major risks, possibly supported by effective government policies.
“The continued improvements in life expectancy in five countries during 2019–21 indicate that these countries were better prepared to withstand the COVID-19 pandemic,” the study stated.
“These findings suggest that government policies that improve population health also build resilience to future shocks. Such policies include reducing population exposure to major upstream risks for cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, such as harmful diets and low physical activity, tackling the commercial determinants of poor health, and ensuring access to affordable health services.”
